State of the Leagues (Part One)

The big news is, of course, that Accrington Stanley are returning to the Football League. One of the founders of the Football League, the club went bankrupt in the 60's, only to be reborn later towards the end of that decade. They've been playing in the lower echelons of the leagues ever since. For me it was the Milk Boards Ad in the 80s that first told me of Accrington's existence. Gone now are the mocking commercials (at least for a year) after coming close to the playoff spots over the previous few seasons.

Who will join them? Four teams will playoff for the chance to join Accrington, with spots 2 through 5 currently occupied by Hereford, Halifax, Grays Athletic (today's 7-2 winners over relegation bound Scarborough), and Morecambe, with anywhere between 2 and 4 games left to be played (depending on the team).

Stevenage are only outside of the top 4 on goals scored, so places could easily be changed in the final few games, although only Morecambe are likely to drop out as Halifax and Grays Athletic still have 3 and 4 games, respectively, left to play. Interestingly Grays Athletic will play Morecambe in their final game of the season. York City are only able to gate crash the party if they win both remaining games while both Stevenage and Morecambe fail to win both of theirs and in Morecambe's case by a total of 5 goals.

My prediction is that Stevenage will sneak in to the playoff spots at the expense of Morecambe. As for who will go through from the playoffs, I always favour the teams with larger goal differences and stingy defenses, which on current form would see Hereford play Grays Athletic in the final, with Hereford the likely victors.

As for who will be going down that is a five-way battle between Scarborough , Forest Green (the current teams occupying the bottom two spots), Tamworth, Southport and Altrincham (the latter only needing a draw from one of it's final two games top be safe). Tamworth only sit one point above the drop zone having played one game more than both Scarborough and Forest Green, who are only 1 and 2 points, respectively, in arrears.

Scarborough's last 11 games read: 2 wins, three draws and 6 losses (the first being a 5-1 thrashing by fellow strugglers Forest Green and the last a 7-2 drubbing by promotion chasing Grays Athletic). I've got a hunch that these demoralising results will see them finish in last place with Forest Green who haven't even won any in their last 11 outings (although five of those have been draws).

The newboy, from the Northern Conference, look likely to be Norwich Victoria, who need a win or two draws from their last two games to keep Stafford Ranger at bay (Stafford in turn have to win both of their final games to stand a chance). The newboy from the Southern Conference are likely to be Weymouth (who need only two draws or a win to be certain) while St Albans also would need to win both of their games to Weymouth fail.

Predictions:

• Champions: Accrington Stanley (already decided)
• Playoff Winners: Hereford over Grays Athletic
• Playoff Contenders: Halifax & Stevenage
• Relegated: Forest Green & Scarborough
• Newboys: Norwich Victoria (North) & Weymouth (South)