Still Hope

I’ve been asked a lot lately by my American friends and colleagues if it is all over now for the USA at this year’s World Cup.

The simple answer is no! …However qualifying for the knock-out rounds will be tricky.

On paper the USA were in the second hardest group in the tournament (Group C had the honour of being named this year’s “Group of Death”) but with Serbia’s capitulation at the hands of its group’s top two teams, the USA’s group (E) inherited the mattle and the “honour”! As if to prove this point, Group E is the only one where all four teams can still qualify and no team has secured moving on to the next round.


Here’s how the table currently stands:

Win Draw Loss GF GA GD Pts
Italy 1 1 0 3 1 +2 4
Czech 1 0 1 3 2 +1 3
Ghana 1 0 1 2 2 0 3
USA 0 1 1 1 4 -3 1
(GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against, GD = Goal Difference)

With 3 points given for a win, 1 point for a draw/tie and 0 for a loss, a quick glance at the above table makes it clear that a fair number of permutations could happen. The only thing we can know for sure before the games are played is that the USA CANNOT claim top spot, other than that anything else can happen.


With all that said, what then do the USA have to do to qualify?

First and foremost the United States have to win against Ghana, without that simple result, no permutation can save them - anything less and the US will go home. However, in order to qualify for the next round the other game (Italy v Czech Republic) must go their way.


Here’s how it breaks down:
(These all assume a USA win against Ghana)

• Scenario 1: Italy win.
  Result: The USA qualify second (irrespective of the score lines)
  

• Scenario 2: Italy draw with the Czechs.
  Result: If this happens, the USA must win their game by a certain number of goals. That number can change depending of the what type of draw the Italians have (e.g. a ‘0-0’ or a ‘3-3’). Below are the score lines that the USA will need to secure to move on:
  
• Italy 0 – Czech Rep 0
  USA need to win by four goals (e.g. ‘4-0’, ‘5-1’, ‘6-2’, etc.)
• Italy 1 – Czech Rep 1
  As above.
• Italy 2 – Czech Rep 2
  This is where it starts to get a little tricky. The USA have to win by 4 goals, but score at least 5. So ‘4-0’ will see them go home, but ‘5-1’, ‘6-2’, etc. will see them advance.
• Italy 3 – Czech Rep 3
  The USA have to win by 4 goals, but score at least 6. So ‘4-0’ & ‘5-1’ will see them go home, but ‘6-2’, ‘7-3’, etc. will see them advance.
• And so on…
  

• Scenario 3: Czech Republic beat Italy.
  Result: If this happens, the USA must still win their game by a certain number of goals, or the Italians lose by a certain number. Essentially there needs to be a swing of 5 goals (with at least 3 of those scored by the USA to avoid the “coin-toss”.) Once again, below are the score lines that the USA will need to secure to move on:
  
  (Italy v Czech Republic score, followed by various USA v Ghana scores needed.)
  0-1 = 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.
  1-2 = 5-1, 6-2, 7-2, etc.
  0-2 = 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.
  2-3 = 5-1, 6-2, 7-2, etc.
  1-3 = 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.
  0-3 = 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.
  

What are the odds of any of this happening?

Well the high score lines are unlikely, but an Italian win and a win for the USA is certainly possible. The USA’s loss and the Ghana’s win against the Czechs don’t truly give as an indication how the game will go. The Czech team that played us was very different to the one who played Ghana, likewise the USA team that played in the first game were a shadow of the one that played Italy. Likewise Ghana will be missing both of their goal scorers through suspension.

Results: Italy will probably beat a weakened Czech Republic, and the USA if they play to their potential should dispose of Ghana.

It’s still a long shot, but yes there is hope...