Still Hope

I’ve been asked a lot lately by my American friends and colleagues if it is all over now for the USA at this year’s World Cup.

The simple answer is no! …However qualifying for the knock-out rounds will be tricky.

On paper the USA were in the second hardest group in the tournament (Group C had the honour of being named this year’s “Group of Death”) but with Serbia’s capitulation at the hands of its group’s top two teams, the USA’s group (E) inherited the mattle and the “honour”! As if to prove this point, Group E is the only one where all four teams can still qualify and no team has secured moving on to the next round.


Here’s how the table currently stands:

Win Draw Loss GF GA GD Pts
Italy 1 1 0 3 1 +2 4
Czech 1 0 1 3 2 +1 3
Ghana 1 0 1 2 2 0 3
USA 0 1 1 1 4 -3 1
(GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against, GD = Goal Difference)

With 3 points given for a win, 1 point for a draw/tie and 0 for a loss, a quick glance at the above table makes it clear that a fair number of permutations could happen. The only thing we can know for sure before the games are played is that the USA CANNOT claim top spot, other than that anything else can happen.


With all that said, what then do the USA have to do to qualify?

First and foremost the United States have to win against Ghana, without that simple result, no permutation can save them - anything less and the US will go home. However, in order to qualify for the next round the other game (Italy v Czech Republic) must go their way.


Here’s how it breaks down:
(These all assume a USA win against Ghana)

• Scenario 1: Italy win.
  Result: The USA qualify second (irrespective of the score lines)
  

• Scenario 2: Italy draw with the Czechs.
  Result: If this happens, the USA must win their game by a certain number of goals. That number can change depending of the what type of draw the Italians have (e.g. a ‘0-0’ or a ‘3-3’). Below are the score lines that the USA will need to secure to move on:
  
• Italy 0 – Czech Rep 0
  USA need to win by four goals (e.g. ‘4-0’, ‘5-1’, ‘6-2’, etc.)
• Italy 1 – Czech Rep 1
  As above.
• Italy 2 – Czech Rep 2
  This is where it starts to get a little tricky. The USA have to win by 4 goals, but score at least 5. So ‘4-0’ will see them go home, but ‘5-1’, ‘6-2’, etc. will see them advance.
• Italy 3 – Czech Rep 3
  The USA have to win by 4 goals, but score at least 6. So ‘4-0’ & ‘5-1’ will see them go home, but ‘6-2’, ‘7-3’, etc. will see them advance.
• And so on…
  

• Scenario 3: Czech Republic beat Italy.
  Result: If this happens, the USA must still win their game by a certain number of goals, or the Italians lose by a certain number. Essentially there needs to be a swing of 5 goals (with at least 3 of those scored by the USA to avoid the “coin-toss”.) Once again, below are the score lines that the USA will need to secure to move on:
  
  (Italy v Czech Republic score, followed by various USA v Ghana scores needed.)
  0-1 = 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.
  1-2 = 5-1, 6-2, 7-2, etc.
  0-2 = 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.
  2-3 = 5-1, 6-2, 7-2, etc.
  1-3 = 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.
  0-3 = 4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.
  

What are the odds of any of this happening?

Well the high score lines are unlikely, but an Italian win and a win for the USA is certainly possible. The USA’s loss and the Ghana’s win against the Czechs don’t truly give as an indication how the game will go. The Czech team that played us was very different to the one who played Ghana, likewise the USA team that played in the first game were a shadow of the one that played Italy. Likewise Ghana will be missing both of their goal scorers through suspension.

Results: Italy will probably beat a weakened Czech Republic, and the USA if they play to their potential should dispose of Ghana.

It’s still a long shot, but yes there is hope...

Group B - Half Time

England are on top with a great goal from Joe Cole, which could've been doubled with shots by Lampard and Rooney. England have played better despite Gerrard being on the bench (rested on 1 yellow card). The weather (i.e. the heat, or lack thereof) is playing a big part of that for sure. the bigger news, perhaps, for England though is that Owen went off injured after just 4 minutes, with Crouch coming on. Expect to see Theo Walcott at some stage as Sven must surely not want to risk having Rooney play the whole game.

Meanwhile Trinidad's hopes are fading after giving up a goal to Paraguay. They now have to do the unlikely and put 3 goals past the South Americans and hope England hold their lead - there are other permitations, but they are just as unlikely as this one.

Half-Time Results:

• England 1 - Sweden 0
• TNT 0 - Paraguay 1

England v Sweden - Second Half:

• 51 mins: Goal 1-1 - Markus Allback equalised for the Scandinavians. Could England, yet again, fail to beat Sweden!? A draw at least will see them top, but a win will give the team more confidence.
• 56 mins: Ferdinand off in place of Sol Campbell. An odd subsitution unless Rio is injured or Sven wants to give Sol some playing time. Perhaps the critism about Ferdinand not going in for the tackle has made Errikson think that he needs the more aggressive Campbell against these Swedes.
• 69 mins: Interestingly Sven brings on Gerrard for Rooney, resting the play that he must and bringing on an aggresive midfielder. Of course if anyone can take control of a game, Gerrard can. Of course he must be careful (along with Lampard) not to get a yellow. Sven thinking must be that he wants to try for the win, but by having the midfielder he wants to sure up the game for at least a draw. Some good desicions here - is this the same Sven!?
• 76 mins: Hargreaves joins Gerrard and Lampard with a yellow card.
• 85 mins: GOAL 2-1 - It pays off as Gerrard heads in the ball from a Joe Cole cross. The man is just pure legend!
• 90+1 mins: Goal 2-2 - Aaarrgggghhhhh! Right at the death Sweden pull one back. England look destined to never beat Sweden! Surely the last goal of the game and unsurprisingly scored by that man Larsson.
  
• Full-Time: The game ends 2-2, and both teams go through to the next round (although with Trinidad being 2-0 down against Paraguay that was always going to be the case), with England taking top spot. Yet again Sweden avoid defeat to England and Sven will probably be the happiest man in the stadium, however, a lot of that must be down to Steven Gerrard who is now the leading goal scorer for England, perhaps resting Lampard for the next game might be a good idea.
  
  So England go on to face an impressive Ecuador team on June 25, while Sweden will have to beat the hosts a day earlier to make it to the quarter-finals.
  

Group A - Final Word

Well I was wrong: Germany destoryed Ecuador, keeping a clean sheet to boot, while Poland saved some face by despensing with Costa Rica.

Costa Rica now sit rock bottom with 0 points and -6 goal difference, they'll have to hope for a heavy loss for the Iranians or Togo to avoid going into the record books as being the worst team (statistically) in this year's World Cup. Germany and Ecuador can now sit back and see who they will be facing in the next round; England or Sweden for Ecuador, while Germany have to possibility of also facing Trinidad.

Final Round

Eight teams have qualified for the last 16 from 6 groups (all with 6pts), while seven teams have already been eliminated from 5 groups (all with 0pts), but no team has yet won their group. This means that there are still 17 teams fighting for the place in the last 16, a fight that begins today with Group A and Group B (featuring England) and going on until Friday.

In group A Germany and Ecuador have already qualified, so all that is left to decide is who is going to finish top and have the 'supposedly' easier game in the last 16 knock-out round, while Poland will be playing Costa Rica to see who avoids ending up with the group's wooden spoon.

In group B England are already through, but need at least a draw against Sweden to claim top spot, while Sweden need at least a draw to guarantee qualifying for the next stage. TNT will need to beat Paraguay and hope that England with a net goal difference of +3. Meanwhile Paraguay will want to avoid the wooden spoon by beating Trinidad.


My Predictions:

• Group A:
  Ecuador will beat the home team, exposing the German's weaker defense.
  Costa Rica will rediscover the form that put two goals past Germany in the opener while Poland will go home with the heads held in shame.
  
  
• Group B:
  As much as I want England to win we just don't seem to be able to beat Sweden, so a draw or a loss is most likely. However, with Rooney playing from the start, I'm hoping that it will kick start this England team and give us a resounding victory.
  As for TNT, I'm hoping they can upset the South Americans and pull off a win (together with an unlike England mauling of Sweden) will see the islanders qualify ahead of Sweden - nice! More likely though Paraguay will win regaining some pride.